How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

You can discuss anything here, Jensen related or not. Technical discussions / questions may be moved to the correct Forum.
User avatar
Clive Bishop
Posts: 933
Joined: Wed Apr 18, 2007 8:49 am
Location: North Somerset
Contact:

How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by Clive Bishop »

Statement, light blue touch paper and stand back:


I see all the headlines are about the ban on diesel and petrol cars from 2040 - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40723581" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

With my classics the idea was to enjoy them and also have the benefit of their asset value for later in life - I will be 76 by then or for my kids to have the benefit.

Will this now knock the values of all classic vehicles and therefore them dropping in value the closer the date gets? Nothing has as far as I can see been said about "Historic Registered" cars in the UK on this matter at the moment.

Still on a lighter note, looking forward to screwing the nuts of both Jensens this weekend, weather permitting.
1973 Interceptor Mk III 136/8332 - Moss Green
1973 Jensen Healey Mk 1 11362 - Magenta - Owned by Lindsey
1972 Jensen Healey Mk 1 10343 - Sadly too far gone and so now a donor car
1973 Jensen Healey Mk 1 12504 - Sold for potential restoration / racer
User avatar
Chris_R
JOC General Secretary
Posts: 6576
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:19 am
Location: South West London

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by Chris_R »

I don't think there is a need to stand back, it is inevitable that things will change and we in this country are a mere drop in the global pool. Petrol will not last forever and this is part of a growing movement. Netherlands and Norway wish to stop 100% combustion engined vehicles from 2025, Germany and India by 2030, France and now us by 2040. By 2025 China, which is already the worlds biggest car market is forecasting to have 20% of new sales with electric car and they are intending to declassify hybrids as "New Energy Vehicle", which is spurring Honda and Toyota to create all electric vehicles.
Volvo will only make hybrid or all electric cars from 2019, all Volvos after that will have some form of electric motor and BMW are to start building an all electric Mini.
Just like the steam railway engines and the traction engines, so the internal combustion engined vehicle will become obsolete and there will inevitably be more and more restrictions on their use. Ultimately petrol itself will disappear altogether.
The 2040 date is however not a drop-dead date for the use of internal combustion engined cars, only a date for the banning of sales of new ones but it will be a gradual process and with such an announcement you will probably see the number of solely internal combustion engined cars declining rapidly from 2030 onwards and probably by 2035 all cars sold will be either all electric or at least hybrids although in 20 years those will likely have changed out of all recognition from today.
Chris
JOC Member 6116
--------------------------------------------------
Richie
V8 Lover
Posts: 4572
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2005 8:08 am
Location: Near Cardiff

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by Richie »

Market forces will see petrol being very scarce, a bit like leaded petrol today. Although it's legal to sell limited quantities of it, where and when did you last see it for sale? I cant remember the last time I saw lead replacement petrol...

And when we do find petrol in say 15 - 20 years time, how much will it cost? Mechanics might be hard to come by too - they'll all be electricians by then :D .

I wonder if we can retro fit electric motors and have speakers to replicate an engine noise...
User avatar
Clive Bishop
Posts: 933
Joined: Wed Apr 18, 2007 8:49 am
Location: North Somerset
Contact:

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by Clive Bishop »

Richie wrote:Market forces will see petrol being very scarce, a bit like leaded petrol today. Although it's legal to sell limited quantities of it, where and when did you last see it for sale? I cant remember the last time I saw lead replacement petrol...

And when we do find petrol in say 15 - 20 years time, how much will it cost? Mechanics might be hard to come by too - they'll all be electricians by then :D .

I wonder if we can retro fit electric motors and have speakers to replicate an engine noise...
A little quip was made between two of us the other day......Interceptor R etc, how about a Interceptor E, based on a Tesla 4WD drive train etc with the body being a Mk 3 :D :D
1973 Interceptor Mk III 136/8332 - Moss Green
1973 Jensen Healey Mk 1 11362 - Magenta - Owned by Lindsey
1972 Jensen Healey Mk 1 10343 - Sadly too far gone and so now a donor car
1973 Jensen Healey Mk 1 12504 - Sold for potential restoration / racer
User avatar
garyc
Posts: 534
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 9:49 pm
Location: Berkshire

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by garyc »

The Golf R definitely has a control for exhaust noise which comes out through speakers inside the car... .from memory you can change the tone as well as the volume.
Think the m series BMW has them as well.
I wouldnt mind a Jensen bodied tesla
Im sure in the future electric conversions probably not tesla would be available
I wouldnt actually want to do that to a nice running Jensen but the way things are going I'm not so sure there will be many rough Jensen's in the next 10 years as it looks like everyone is restoring them now.
GaryC
Last edited by garyc on Wed Jul 26, 2017 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Richie
V8 Lover
Posts: 4572
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2005 8:08 am
Location: Near Cardiff

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by Richie »

The potential issue I see is that even if classic, or even all current (no pun intended re electric cars) are exempt from restriction on use, market forces will dictate that petrol will be very hard to find and very expensive.

I hope my uncharacteristic pessimism is unfounded otherwise all these restored Jensens will look great but will be immobile.
User avatar
Chris_R
JOC General Secretary
Posts: 6576
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:19 am
Location: South West London

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by Chris_R »

You are not being particularly pessimistic. Ultimately petrol will become harder to obtain and consequently expensive. However there is a lot of money invested in all kinds of historic cars and the future public will like to see them from time to time just like they do now but perhaps for slightly different reasons and so there will be an alternative solution that will still allow the cars to run.
Can you imagine events like Goodwood Revival, Silverstone Classic and dozens of others not just in this country coming to end? If anything historic events will become more popular. I think there will still be an appetite among some people to have something different and to be part of that historic "scene" and they will be the ones that buy and keep and maintain the classics, possibly not much different to today. You can imagine that in 2050 the people that are not yet born wanting to see how the cars of 80, 90, 100 or even up to 150 years earlier looked and worked and sounded which you can't get in static museums. And to see them working, and not just the racing ones. Perhaps the much hated ethanol with suitable adjustments in the engine could be made to work.
There will undoubtedly be restrictions on their road use in future as more vehicles become autonomous and human driven cars will become a hazard to the autonomous vehicles and once those become the overwhelming majority on the road then change will come. You probably won't be able to just get up in the morning and decide to take your classic out for a drive. I don't see this as pessimistic, I see this as more realistic as change is the one thing that cannot be stopped and so we all will need to adapt as it comes.
Chris
JOC Member 6116
--------------------------------------------------
Toby
Posts: 472
Joined: Tue May 12, 2015 11:52 pm
Location: Cornwall, UK

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by Toby »

I wonder what influence the oil rich states will have on this?
1973 Interceptor III
1997 Daimler X308 Super Eight
1937 Ford Model 10 CX
User avatar
RAP72
V8 Lover
Posts: 4297
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2005 7:11 pm
Location: Huntingdon, cambs
Contact:

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by RAP72 »

Toby wrote:I wonder what influence the oil rich states will have on this?
They will burn oil to produce our electricity requirement. Then, as the distance is too great to build pylons they will build huge oil burning ships to carry the electricity in Hugh batteries to plug into our grid. Once discharged they will 'steam' back to replenish. But we will still claim we are green. :mrgreen:I couldn't find a tongue in cheek smilie.
colin7673
now normal...
Posts: 4624
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2006 11:54 am
Location: Spalding Lincolnshire
Contact:

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by colin7673 »

Its nice to know that we are being railroaded into the unknown,,, Electric cars, we all run our homes on electric, work places, Factories or Offices, Hospital, Police stations, Ambulance Stations, Street Lights the list is really endless, all that we all rely on one way or another.. where do we get our electric from, coal burning power stations that give out planet harming CO2 gases, so we then move to gas turbine, but gas will not last for ever, this we know, so lets build a nuclear power station, look what happened with Chernobyl, the effects are still around now, but now that they have built another cover for the main building it should be 'safe' for a few more years, If this type of accident happens again, do the surrounding humans become an acceptable loss because of our greed for electric..

So what is the answer? Why can't we use Hydrogen cars?

There a few companies now making these cars and I know they are expensive and another downside is there are not many fueling station around, but if something is made and sold to the mass doesn't this encourage the price to fall.

And one more thing to think about when petrol and diesel have stopped being sold, when we will all be driving Electric ,,,, Government revenue on these fuels is in the BILLIONS per year.. Where is that money going to come from to make up the loss from petrol and diesel sales ??

But this is just my humble opinion
Only working half a day now.
http://www.jensensontour.co.uk
User avatar
Steve Payne
MASSIVE RED CARD
MASSIVE RED CARD
Posts: 6461
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 4:51 pm
Location: Witney , Oxfordshire
Contact:

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by Steve Payne »

My guess it will be like coal powered vehicles, coal was easy to get hold of at the begining of the last century but where would you buy it now? A friend who has a Steam engine has to order it and it gets delivered to his door in bags.

Obvioulsly the volume of petrol powered cars will dictate how easy it is to purchase but if the hybrids are still available and I suspect they will be for longer journeys I am sure petrol stations will still be about for many years after the last purely petrol powered car is sold. There are lot of traveling sales people and delivery drivers who will still need petrol powered or hybrid vehicles to give them the range that battery power will be unable to manage and how will HGV's cope?

Like all ideas goverments come up with they dont think about the details. At the moment I can get in my petrol powered car and drive to Aberdeen for example. With a bit of luck I would be there under 8 hours with one petrol stop taking 15 mins probably. If I had an electric powered car I would have to make sure it was fully charged before I leave, I would have to stop at about half way for an 80% charge and that would take at least 45 mins. I would then have to stop again in about 150 miles for another 80% charge to get me there. This has added at least an hour and a half on to a journey and that is if I dont put the A/C or heating on which all takes more power from the battery so shortens the range considerably. I was speaking to a Tesla owner and he was telling me how great it was but he said '' I have a proper car for long journeys and in the winter as just putting the heater on can shorten the range by as much as 30%''.

We all know it will come as it wont last forever but personally I dont think it will be a problem we will have to worry about in our life time.

What ever happened to Hydrogen powered vehicles, all that comes out the exhaust is steam.

Steve
JOC official Lightning engineer
User avatar
Chris_R
JOC General Secretary
Posts: 6576
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:19 am
Location: South West London

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by Chris_R »

Steve Payne wrote:My guess it will be like coal powered vehicles, coal was easy to get hold of at the begining of the last century but where would you buy it now? A friend who has a Steam engine has to order it and it gets delivered to his door in bags.

Obvioulsly the volume of petrol powered cars will dictate how easy it is to purchase but if the hybrids are still available and I suspect they will be for longer journeys I am sure petrol stations will still be about for many years after the last purely petrol powered car is sold. There are lot of traveling sales people and delivery drivers who will still need petrol powered or hybrid vehicles to give them the range that battery power will be unable to manage and how will HGV's cope?

Like all ideas goverments come up with they dont think about the details. At the moment I can get in my petrol powered car and drive to Aberdeen for example. With a bit of luck I would be there under 8 hours with one petrol stop taking 15 mins probably. If I had an electric powered car I would have to make sure it was fully charged before I leave, I would have to stop at about half way for an 80% charge and that would take at least 45 mins. I would then have to stop again in about 150 miles for another 80% charge to get me there. This has added at least an hour and a half on to a journey and that is if I dont put the A/C or heating on which all takes more power from the battery so shortens the range considerably. I was speaking to a Tesla owner and he was telling me how great it was but he said '' I have a proper car for long journeys and in the winter as just putting the heater on can shorten the range by as much as 30%''.

We all know it will come as it wont last forever but personally I dont think it will be a problem we will have to worry about in our life time.

What ever happened to Hydrogen powered vehicles, all that comes out the exhaust is steam.

Steve
We have become used to being able to drive ourselves long distances with ease and as a result have done so increasingly. Perhaps in the new way we won't be able to do that. Either we would put our car on a train to cover the long distance (now that is a revolutionary idea) or we will take the train and use a locally hired vehicle at the other end. That's always assuming that there will still be personal vehicle ownership in 30 years time. Perhaps with the growth of autonomous driving vehicles and applications like Uber you will not buy your own vehicle but instead dial up one when you want it so perhaps about half an hour before you arrive in Aberdeen by train you will request on your smartphone a car to pick you up at the station.
Chris
JOC Member 6116
--------------------------------------------------
Richie
V8 Lover
Posts: 4572
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2005 8:08 am
Location: Near Cardiff

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by Richie »

Although only water comes out of the exhaust of a hydrogen powered car, a lot of energy goes into producing the hydrogen. But that might be a way of keeping internal combustion cars on the road.
There's no getting away from the fact that, irrespective of how the electricity is generated, it's far less polluting (and a better means of moving a car) than internal combustion.
Market forces as much as any politician will make petrol harder to come by.


Let's make the most of our cars while we can eh.
mojo
Posts: 732
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2006 3:41 pm

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by mojo »

Let's be clear about this: we are not being "railroaded" into anything here. What this is is some vague hand-waving idea from Gove on what he wants to "commit" someone else to do at some point in the distant future, long after he has ceased to have any say in the matter.

It's a classic politician's "solution" to a problem which does not require said politician to actually do anything much at all himself.
User avatar
rolando38
Posts: 370
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:12 pm
Location: France

Re: How Will This Impact on Classic Cars

Post by rolando38 »

As for me I think that we (in Europe) do not have to worry that much
Vehicles with more than 30 years are known to be collectible a rather than everyday runners and 95% do not exceed 3k miles per year
We will also have the active support of the FIVA and it's local branches that already managed to tweak rulers decisions in some cities (like Paris) having taken drastic decisions about car pollution

Let's hope for the best not the worst
Post Reply

Return to “General Discussion”